The historic memory crisis is taking on increasingly absurd forms and is particularly affecting the prices of RAM. DDR4 memory modules are now even rising in price faster than DDR5 because everything is simply being bought up.
The historical storage crisis, which is driven by the exorbitantly high demand from the AI segment, is taking on more and more absurd forms and is having a particular impact on the prices for working memory. In the meantime, however, even DDR4 memory modules are rising faster in price than DDR5, because now “just everything” is being bought up. According to the South Korean website Ctee, which cites a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, the spot prices called up on the memory exchange for DDR4 memory modules (“ICs”) meanwhile exceed the current contract prices by a massive 172 percent.
Is DDR4 better than DDR5
The spot prices are massively above the contract prices. Specifically, the spot price for DDR4 exceeds the contract price by 172 percent, for DDR5 the surcharge is 76 percent. – Ctee
Goldman Sachs makes it clear that this “scissor movement” has been highly unstable in past cycles and ultimately almost always leads to only one result: contract prices must inevitably follow up massively in a timely manner.
Since the market is usually subject to the pattern “spot price leads, contract price follows”, buyers have little leeway in the contract negotiations in view of these extreme price mark-ups. The current pricing is also so decoupled that a drastic adjustment of the contract prices seems inevitable. – Ctee
According to this, the previous price increases for DDR5 and DDR4 RAM, which have now risen in price by up to 500 percent, are “just the beginning”. Since the three major DRAM manufacturers, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, would now prefer short-term purchase agreements, the contract prices will also be adjusted accordingly to the spot prices in a timely manner.
It is assumed that the coming months will reflect the current pricing of DRAM modules in final products, which means that video cards and memory modules could become more expensive than ever before. While Goldman Sachs assumes that the profit forecasts for the memory giants Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, but also for small manufacturers, for example Nanya Technology, will have to be revised upwards sharply, memory prices are causing massive problems in the PC industry. The sales figures for PCs and components are likely to fall extremely.
Goldman Sachs therefore maintains its decidedly bullish stance towards Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron. Customers are already beginning to accept more aggressive price increases for the first quarter of 2026, which suggests that the profit forecasts for the memory chip industry could be revised upwards again. – Ctee
While “the chosen ones”, including Apple, Asus, Dell and Lenovo, as well as the particularly high-margin AI segment will be served accordingly, consumers will probably be left behind for a long time.
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